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Purpose - The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demand...
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Purpose - The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach - To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings - Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value - As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.
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Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions has emerged as a crucial challenge for the passenger transport system. We introduce an inter- and transdisciplinary scheme for the development and assessment of socially and politically feasi...
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Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions has emerged as a crucial challenge for the passenger transport system. We introduce an inter- and transdisciplinary scheme for the development and assessment of socially and politically feasible transport policy packages to achieve net-zero transport emissions and illustrate the scheme via application to the EU member state of Austria. We find mutual disciplinary dependencies as well as the need for co-generation between science and practice, with a varying mix of stakeholders and disciplines relevant across different scheme steps. Results show that the assessment of legal feasibility and in particular proportionality rely on socioeconomic analysis. While economic incentives are crucial, an early announced ban on fossil fuel cars is needed to fully achieve carbon neutrality. Infrastructure development and education also need prompt redirection to keep the economic transition costs low. Overall, a such redesigned transport system imposes lower costs for society, providing a further implementation incentive.
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The debate about the installation of a tramway in Paris stretched out over a decade. Two rival projects were put forward, each one focusing on a different aspect of the problem: town planning on the one hand, transport on the othe...
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The debate about the installation of a tramway in Paris stretched out over a decade. Two rival projects were put forward, each one focusing on a different aspect of the problem: town planning on the one hand, transport on the other. The present article looks at the decision-making process, and the accompanying techno-political controversies. This form of analysis makes it possible to understand the different actors' viewpoints, and to make sense of their "policy statements". Our primary concern is to show how the decision-making process in question depended on the different protagonists' ability to provide convincing arguments, transforming the tramway issue into a problem solving exercise.
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Single policies or entire policy packages are often assessed using different methods aiming at a quantification of effects as well as the detection of undesired outcomes. The knowledge of potential impacts is essential to take inf...
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Single policies or entire policy packages are often assessed using different methods aiming at a quantification of effects as well as the detection of undesired outcomes. The knowledge of potential impacts is essential to take informed policy actions. Hence, there is a constant need for efficient assessment approaches to support policy decision-making. A broad range of such assessment methods is used in policymaking. Some of them are using quantitative data; others are characterized by qualitative information, observations or opinions. Practical experiences with transport policy prove that these methods all have their pros and cons, but none of them are able to detect the full range of effects. This leads to important questions this article deals with, such as what are the strengths and limitations of the different tools and methods for assessing impacts, and how should different approaches be integrated into the policymaking processes? We analyze the ability of assessment methods to detect different kinds of intended and unintended effects, and introduce the concepts of structurally open (mainly qualitative) and structurally closed (mainly quantitative) methods. It is argued that these concepts support making the pros and cons of the tools and methods more explicit and, thus, allow integrating the different tools and methods into the process of policy packaging. Based on a policy package example, we provide practical recommendations on how to integrate different assessment methods adequately and show that both quantitative and qualitative tools should be used in different phases of the process. The main recommendation is to alternate the application of assessment methods with structurally open methods used in the beginning and the end of the policymaking process and applying structurally closed methods in between.
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The mobility hub concept has become increasingly popular within international research and policies, including in The Netherlands. However, judging by the (still) limited share of multimodality in the Netherlands, similar historic...
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The mobility hub concept has become increasingly popular within international research and policies, including in The Netherlands. However, judging by the (still) limited share of multimodality in the Netherlands, similar historical concepts seemed insufficient to prompting a fundamental shift from individual car use to multimodal transport. To enable planners to be better positioned to implement the mobility hub concept, we compared its value with that of related concepts that were previously implemented. Specifically, we examined historical Dutch policy documents and conducted expert and frontrunner interviews to evaluate the mobility hub as a policy concept. We first traced the evolution of the mobility hub, focusing on node and place-based concepts that have been implemented since the second half of the 20th century. We found that related concepts, such as Park and Ride (P + R) or transit-oriented development (TOD), have typically focused on improving transfers between collective and feeder transport, while interactions with land use have gained increased attention. We derived policy lessons from the implementation of these historical policy concepts. Our findings suggest that strategically chosen locations, integrated mobility systems, flanking policies, multi-level policy coherence and public-private cooperation are important considerations when implementing mobility hubs. Moreover, shared mobility, mobility as a service, vehicle electrification, and demand-responsive transit could advance the implementation of TOD, P + R, neighbourhood and rural hubs. In conclusion, the design of different types of mobility hubs should ideally be based on underlying policy objectives and adapted according to context.
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This paper examines how complex transport projects are reported in the media using the Transport Innovation Fund bid for Greater Manchester as a case study. It demonstrates how projects are simplified and distorted in the media in...
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This paper examines how complex transport projects are reported in the media using the Transport Innovation Fund bid for Greater Manchester as a case study. It demonstrates how projects are simplified and distorted in the media in a systematic way. Such distortion is explained by a scheme's perceived newsworthiness, its complexity and the contemporary nature of news media production. The paper has implications for future research in this area and the implementation of sustainable transport policy. It urges transport professionals to both better understand, and engage directly with, the media if they are to maximise the benefits of efforts to shape travel behaviour.
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Transportation significantly contributes to carbon emissions, prompting the
need for effective mitigation policies. This study addresses the knowledge gaps
in assessing the effectiveness of transport carbon policies and offers t...
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Transportation significantly contributes to carbon emissions, prompting the
need for effective mitigation policies. This study addresses the knowledge gaps
in assessing the effectiveness of transport carbon policies and offers the lack of
a holistic comparative overview. The study used a model composed of
a mixed-effects meta-regression and carbon elasticity to investigate policies,
like shared bikes, mobility hubs, low emission zones, congestion pricing,
electric vehicles, and hydrogen vehicles. This model included seven control
variables: year, GDP, implementation costs, geographic scale, environmental
benefits, and transport share of energy consumption and carbon emissions.
Mobility hubs and electric vehicles ranked are top effective policies with
carbon elasticities of 3.73 and 3.72, effect sizes of 127.47 and 86.73, and
confidence intervals of [65.55, 107.93] and [106.17, 148.78], respectively.
Followed by the low emission zone of 16.3 carbon elasticity, proving its costeffectiveness,
effect size of 10.16, and a confidence interval of [−2.48, 22.80].
Congestion pricing, despite having the highest effect size of 873.39, its confidence
interval [−354.01, 2100.80] is wide, indicating the uncertainty of this
effect. Shared bikes and hydrogen vehicles ranked lowest, suggesting a need
for deeper life cycle-based analysis. Although this model displayed high accuracy,
the findings’ interpretation should consider the inherent data limitations.
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Concerns about local air pollution and climate change have prompted all levels of government to consider a variety of policies to reduce vehicle dependence and fuel consumption, as the transportation sector is one of the largest s...
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Concerns about local air pollution and climate change have prompted all levels of government to consider a variety of policies to reduce vehicle dependence and fuel consumption, as the transportation sector is one of the largest sources of local and global emissions. Because many of the policy options under consideration are market-based (e.g., gasoline tax, carbon tax), it is important to consider how the impacts would vary across space and affect different subpopulations. Evaluating incidence is relevant for both the expected costs and benefits of a particular policy, however detailed data on vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption allowing for the distributions of these variables to be estimated at a fine geographic scale is rarely available. This paper uses a unique dataset with more than 20 million vehicles in California to derive estimates of VMT and fuel consumption in order to examine the spatial distribution of impacts for an increase in the price of gasoline as well as the consequences of using different statistics for policy evaluation. Results show that VMT and fuel consumption distributions are not symmetrically distributed and vary significantly within transportation planning regions. To understand the potential implications of this asymmetry, we do a back of the envelope comparison using the mean and mode of the VMT or fuel consumption distribution for policy analysis. We find that assuming a symmetric distribution can lead to a divergence of 20-40% from the estimates based on the empirical distribution. Our results, therefore, introduce caution in interpreting the incidence of policies targeting the transportation sector based on averages. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The use of private cars with low occupancy is increasingly predominant in workers' transport to industrial estates in Vallès Occidental County, within the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. This unsustainable trend is already...
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The use of private cars with low occupancy is increasingly predominant in workers' transport to industrial estates in Vallès Occidental County, within the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. This unsustainable trend is already on the political agenda. However, sound theoretical background and methodologies to assess sustainability in the field of transport to industrial estates are scarce. In order to gain insight that may increase the effectiveness of future policies for sustainability, this paper describes a practical example of the application of Multi-Criteria Analysis to the design of effective and adaptive policies. Based on the analysis of an inventory of policy documents and plans, several policy measures are assessed using NAIADE, in order to establish priorities. This evaluation method considers multiple valuation languages and provides solid arguments to design potentially successful policies for sustainable transport, Suggestions for further improvement of the methodology and of practical applications are made.
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The paper offers an assessment of the environmental impact of trade liberalization on the cross-border trucking sector in North America. Specific policies in the realm of transportation, environment and trade are investigated with...
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The paper offers an assessment of the environmental impact of trade liberalization on the cross-border trucking sector in North America. Specific policies in the realm of transportation, environment and trade are investigated with data directly related to the time of implementation that varied across ports on each of the two international borders in North America subsequent to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The data on truck flows, wait times, air quality and trade value are analyzed using econometrics for quantitative analysis. Results show various policies do have a positive impact on reducing air emissions through changes in trucking characteristics (technology, patterns) in particular ports where they have been implemented.
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